Oscar Predictions

In the interest of full disclosure, I haven’t seen every single nominated movie yet.  There are some movies I missed in the theater and foolishly, they are not being released on DVD until after the Oscars!  Darn it.  So – A History of Violence, Howl’s Moving Castle, Memoirs of a Geisha…I will definitely catch up on these later in the month.

But, given that I’ve seen the films most likely to win the major prizes…here are my predictions:

Best Supporting Actor
Hardest category to pick.  It really is a horse race, with only William Hurt having no chance at all.  The other awards this season have really been spread out.  I thought that Paul Giamatti was perfectly good in Cinderella Man, but the part did not call for any great stretching, I didn’t think.  But everyone says he was gypped in the past, and often Oscars are given out as a way to make up for past errors (see Al Pacino, Paul Newman, Denzel Washington).   George Clooney probably won’t win for his other nominations, and he really was amazing in Syriana, and has had a great year, so could win this as a reward.  Matt Dillon is representing the Crash cast, and played a very harrowing part that did call for great stretching.   And Jake Gyllenhaal was wonderful in Brokeback Mountain, and I’m really glad he got the nomination here because I thought his work was as good as his castmates.  

My call: George Clooney wins.  

Best Supporting Actress
This one is between Rachel Weisz and Michelle Williams.  Williams was great, but I think Weisz’s part was more substantive – she really could have been up for Best Actress – and she’s won all the major awards leading up to this.

My call: Rachel Weisz wins.

Best Actor
What a strong category!  All these performances were incredible.  In another year, I’d say Joaquin would have won, but not against this competition.  It’ll be a shock if Phillip Seymour Hoffman doesn’t win.  Coming in a strong second is Heath Ledger, who was a revelation in this role (although to my mind, he has revealed himself to be kind of a jerk off-camera, too).

My call: Phillip Seymour Hoffman wins.

Best Actress
This is a tough call, I think, although most people are saying it’s Reese Witherspoon.  She was definitely great, but I actually see Felicity Huffman winning in one of the few surprises of the night.  I could very well be wrong, and I probably will be – but I see it as Reese having more chances in the future, and Felicity finally being recognized for the talent that she is.  It feels like her year, more than Reese’s.  But again, I could be wrong!

My call: Felicity Huffman wins.

Best Director
Nobody else has a shot, although they all did an amazing, amazing job.

My call: Ang Lee wins.

Best Picture
Again, nobody else has a shot, although for once, I have no quarrel with any of the nominees and think that the caliber of these movies is incredibly high.

My call: Brokeback Mountain wins.

And, my favorite movie of the year (tied with Grizzly Man), Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit, will win Best Animated Feature!!  Wheeeeeeee!